{{ tenantName }} {{ tenantGradeLabel }} ▾

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+ Add

Add a city or jurisdiction

Enters at Grade C · unverified and inherits its parent country's national series until a city-level source is wired. Saved to this browser.

Add jurisdiction

{{ g.region }}

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No jurisdiction matches "{{ tenantQuery }}".

+ Add "{{ tenantQuery }}" as a jurisdiction

CALM
DENSE

             LIVE
          

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              {{ accountEmail }}
            
            ▴

Signed in

{{ accountTier }} tier

Sign out

ⓘ Method

Workshop mode

Domain

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Morning brief FREE · ALL MEMBERS

Composing today's brief…

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Dispatch

{{ n.source }} · {{ n.when }} {{ n.grade }}

News & events GDELT · GRADE C

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⚠ {{ proxyNoteText }}

{{ k.label }}

{{ k.source }}

              ━ {{ legendA }}
              ━ {{ legendB }}
              ┄ Forecast P10–P90
            

Method {{ heroMethodLabel }} {{ heroMethodMeta }} {{ heroSource }}

What's moving now

            ● observed change
            largest year-on-year moves in the live series
          

{{ f.meter }} conf {{ f.conf }} {{ f.grade }}

⚠ Anomalies

Analyst layer Structure & co-movement — association only, direction inferred separately.

Correlation matrix {{ corrMeta }}

Correlation ≠ causation.

−1
+1

Lead / lag · {{ pairLabel }} cross-correlation

              Strongest pairrN
            

Compliance & Data-Rights

Global Source Catalog

Genuine, worldwide, verified sources — each stores its own license and evidence grade. Only openly-licensed, published, officially-supplied or licensed feeds are ingested. User-defined sources enter the verification queue at Grade C until an analyst promotes them.

Filter

{{ c.label }}

{{ catCount }} sources shown

{{ s.jur }} · {{ s.topic }}

license · {{ s.license }}

+ Add to signal set

Co-movement & Structure

Correlation Explorer

{{ corrPendingLabel }}

Correlation matrix {{ corrMeta }}

Correlation ≠ causation. N shown per cell is the real year overlap between the two series.

−1
+1

Pairwise · {{ pairLabel }} scatter + OLS fit

{{ p.label }}

{{ s.label }}

Lead / lag · {{ pairLabel }} cross-correlation

Strongest observed relationships

Gold r = positive · cyan r = negative. All correlation; no direction implied.

              PairrN
            

Dependency-graph (DAG) discovery needs a structure-learning run over higher-frequency data — not shown rather than drawn from these annual series.

Projections & Peer Comparison

Foresight & Benchmarking

Indicator

{{ f.label }}

Model

{{ m.label }}

Held-out test window {{ fHoldout }} yr

Years hidden from the model, then used to score it. A wider window is a harder test.

Forward horizon {{ fHorizon }} yr

How far the projection runs. The band widens with distance because the measured error compounds.

{{ foresightPendingLabel }}

Backtest · {{ foresightLabel }} {{ backtestWindow }}

{{ t.label }}

Benchmarking · {{ peerRegionLabel }} {{ peerStatusChip }}

                  ● {{ tenantName }}
                  ● peer country
                  bar = observed peer range
                

{{ peerPendingLabel }}

Peers are named, publicly-reported countries in the same World Bank region. Cross-tenant benchmarking of a subscriber's own private inputs remains opt-in and aggregate-only — that path is not wired here.

{{ p.horizon }}

90% band · {{ p.range }}

Compliance Surface

Data Sources & Provenance

Source, license, fetch date and attribution for everything — the defensible audit surface. Exports carry sources, licenses, methods, assumptions and a timestamped trail.

{{ c.label }}

          SourceLicenseLast fetchAttributionGradeStatus
        

Export defensible bundle includes sources · licenses · methods · assumptions · timestamped audit trail

Premium module

Scenario, simulation and causal work sit on the paid tier. The free tier keeps the observed record — Overview, Global Sources, Correlation, Foresight, Signal Library, Harvester and Provenance — so you can judge the evidence before you pay for inference on top of it.

Upgrade to premium

Current tier: {{ accountTier }}

Ask the corpus

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            {{ c.label }}
            {{ c.value }}
          

{{ modEndpoint }}

⚠ Every panel below is built and positioned. No numbers are drawn yet because no source is connected — the frames fill in the moment the endpoint returns, with no further layout work.

{{ p.title }}

{{ c }}

{{ p.note }}

Wire these to fill the panels above

Payload contract

{{ modHook }}

Method & Assumptions

The active analysis, one tap from anywhere. Every output carries this card.

{{ m.label }}

Confidence

Reading the colors

Correlation — moves together

Hypothesized causation — inferred, uncertain

Projection — modelled forward, not fact

CIM · GLOBAL — Workshop

Exit ✕

{{ tenantName }} · {{ heroTitle }}

⚠ {{ proxyNoteText }}

{{ k.label }}

{{ k.source }} · {{ k.grade }}

         {{ liveStatusText }} · every figure carries its source, license & evidence grade
      

Members only

Global Source Catalog

Correlation Explorer

Foresight & Benchmarking

Data Sources & Provenance

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